Author Topic: Its in the Express so it must be worth a read!  (Read 865 times)


Pitboot

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Re: Its in the Express so it must be worth a read!
« Reply #1 on: 19:12:54, 25/05/19 »
It is a common disease in Europe. The number of cases in Europe has increased steadily, more than 360 000 cases[/ having been reported over the last two decades. Central Europe is the region with the highest [[/size]incidence[/font] of LB, as reported by the Czech Republic, Estonia, Lithuania and Slovenia.


(Fact sheet Lyme borreliosis (Eng) - ECDC - europa.eu

https://ecdc.europa.eu/sites/portal/files/media/en/.../factsheet-lyme-borreliosis.pdf)



I'm no mathematician but if my figures are about right;



745 million population approximately (All of Europe)
Chances of catching Lyme disease:0.05% approximately. And that's over 20 years.


I'm not losing any sleep over this. Now if I was told that every time I went out for a walk I stood a 50/50 chance of actually getting the disease I would do what I already do, carry a small tick kit and be aware of the symptoms.
I think that travelling by car to the walking area is a lot riskier, judging by some of the bone heads I see up here on a daily basis.
If I should fall to rise no more,
As many comrades did before,
Then ask the fifes and drums to play.
Over the hills and far away.

ninthace

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Re: Its in the Express so it must be worth a read!
« Reply #2 on: 19:49:38, 25/05/19 »
I'm no mathematician but if my figures are about right;



745 million population approximately (All of Europe)
Chances of catching Lyme disease:0.05% approximately. And that's over 20 years.


I'm not losing any sleep over this. Now if I was told that every time I went out for a walk I stood a 50/50 chance of actually getting the disease I would do what I already do, carry a small tick kit and be aware of the symptoms.
I think that travelling by car to the walking area is a lot riskier, judging by some of the bone heads I see up here on a daily basis.
  You may be a mathematician but I suspect you are not a statistician!  A more meaningful sum for hikers would involve the numbers of people actually exposing themselves to infection then multiply by contagion and infection factors (i.e. fraction of people encountering ticks times fraction of ticks that succeed in biting times fraction of ticks carrying disease times fraction of successful infections as result of a bite).  The risk for hikers is actually higher because they are exposing themselves to the risk in the first place.  Your second point about the drive there being more dangerous is well made.
I used to use teach about risk at one time.  My favourite example was if of someone built a nuclear power station in your backyard and you decided to move away, you were safer staying put if the move away involved crossing the road. Useful for starting a discussion about perceived and actual risk.
Solvitur Ambulando

jimbob

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Re: Its in the Express so it must be worth a read!
« Reply #3 on: 19:57:28, 25/05/19 »
When you have a friend wrecked by Lyme Disease then perception becomes much closer to being an actuality I would wish on no one.
Too little, too late, too bad......

Pitboot

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Re: Its in the Express so it must be worth a read!
« Reply #4 on: 20:19:53, 25/05/19 »
No, I'm not pretending to be either a mathematician or a statistician, but however you measure it the overall risk is low.
I have every sympathy with anyone unfortunate enough to get the disease, I know it happens and it's very bad luck to get the infection.
Perhaps the aim of media attention to Lyme Disease is to inform and educate, they have certainly done that, but it could be done with a little less sensationalism, even if it means selling fewer newspapers.
If I should fall to rise no more,
As many comrades did before,
Then ask the fifes and drums to play.
Over the hills and far away.

ninthace

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Re: Its in the Express so it must be worth a read!
« Reply #5 on: 20:24:04, 25/05/19 »
Indeed, it is the low incidence of the disease that makes it so dangerous.  Neither the victim nor the medical profession think of it as a likely cause of the symptoms.  As walkers, the secret is to "think tick" and check frequently.  The nymphs tend to hang on to the extreme end bits of vegetation hoping for something to brush past so we check after every passage through vegetation. I also flick the grass and heather with my poles as I go through.
It takes a tick a while to become established.  If removed before then, the risk of infection is much reduced.  If you are bitten, monitor the site of the bite and see your GP if you get a reaction to the bite.
This Monday we finished a walk on Exmoor at a pub where the subject of ticks came up.  The landlord said he was used to taking ticks off his children but added he did need medical help getting one off his daughter's eyelid!
Solvitur Ambulando

Bigfoot_Mike

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Re: Its in the Express so it must be worth a read!
« Reply #6 on: 20:26:52, 25/05/19 »
Statistics and risk are not well understood in general and even less so by the media.

Jac

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Re: Its in the Express so it must be worth a read!
« Reply #7 on: 07:26:49, 26/05/19 »

I walk with a ramblers group mostly on Dartmoor and the SWCP. Two people , to my knowledge, have had Lymes. One extremely seriously with permanent nerve damage probably because it wasn't recognised quickly the other less so but was very unwell and on anti-biotics for  weeks.

So many paths, so little time

Innominate Man

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Re: Its in the Express so it must be worth a read!
« Reply #8 on: 23:14:41, 26/05/19 »
Statistics and risk are not well understood in general and even less so by the media.


A friend of mine used to make the comment that you could take a room of 100 people and note their shoe size, work out the average and present everyone with a pair of the average size shoe. Chances are they would fit almost no body.
He was a quantity surveyor and liked this analogy when asked 'just to provide an average cost'.


On the other hand, I used to say he knew the cost of everything (construction wise) and the value of nothing  :D
Only a hill but all of life to me, up there between the sunset and the sea. 
Geoffrey Winthrop Young

ninthace

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Re: Its in the Express so it must be worth a read!
« Reply #9 on: 00:19:19, 27/05/19 »
At one time there was a spike in the Norwegian birth rate that coincided with the annual arrival of migrating Storks.
Solvitur Ambulando

Bigfoot_Mike

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Re: Its in the Express so it must be worth a read!
« Reply #10 on: 05:14:57, 27/05/19 »
A drink man staggering along the centre line of a busy road would on average be OK.

Innominate Man

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Re: Its in the Express so it must be worth a read!
« Reply #11 on: 00:01:52, 29/05/19 »
At one time there was a spike in the Norwegian birth rate that coincided with the annual arrival of migrating Storks.
Hence the phrase ' Got a stalk on ' !!!   :o
Only a hill but all of life to me, up there between the sunset and the sea. 
Geoffrey Winthrop Young